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Forecasted Stockout Date

The Forecasted Stockout Date is the date Synplex predicts your inventory will go negative, accounting for all confirmed inbound stock (purchase orders and transfer orders scheduled to arrive before that point). It is one of several time-based metrics Synplex computes per inventory level — per variant per location — using a 365-day simulation.

The three time-based metrics​

Understanding Forecasted Stockout Date requires distinguishing it from two related metrics that are easy to confuse:

MetricWhat it answersHow it's calculated
Coverage DateWhen does current on-hand stock alone run out?today + (on-hand ÷ avg daily demand)
Stockout DateWhen does stock go negative even with confirmed inbound?First day the simulation goes negative counting real PO and TO deliveries
Reorder DateWhen does stock hit the reorder point?First day stock ≤ (leadTimeDays + bufferStockDays) × avgDailyDemand
Coverage Date is the simpler of the two stockout signals. It ignores all inbound stock and
asks: if nothing arrives, when do we run out? It is always on or before Stockout Date.

Stockout Date is the more important planning signal. It runs the full simulation with your confirmed purchase order and transfer order arrivals included. If those deliveries are enough to keep you in stock for the next 365 days, Stockout Date will be null (no stockout projected).

Reorder Date is the earliest action trigger. It is the date your stock will fall to the reorder point — the level at which a new order should be placed to cover demand during lead time plus buffer. When Reorder Date is in the past or today, stockAssessment becomes out-of-stock.

How Stockout Date is calculated​

Synplex runs a daily simulation forward 365 days for each inventory level. The simulation:

  1. Starts with current on-hand stock (available from Shopify)
  2. Each day, adds any confirmed deliveries arriving that day (POs and TOs with an arrival date)
  3. Each day, subtracts forecast demand (from your demand plan, spread evenly across the month)
  4. Records the first day the running stock balance goes below zero

That first negative day is converted to a date and stored as stockoutDate.

If the balance never goes negative within 365 days, stockoutDate is null — no stockout is projected.

Stock Gap Days​

When a stockout is projected, Synplex also calculates Stock Gap Days — the number of days between the projected stockout and the next confirmed inbound delivery: stockGapDays = max(0, daysUntilNextDelivery − daysUntilStockout)

A Stock Gap means you will be out of stock for a period even though a delivery is coming. The larger the gap, the more urgent the situation.

Example:

  • Stockout projected: day 8
  • Next PO arrives: day 15
  • Stock Gap Days: 15 − 8 = 7 days

A product with stockGapDays > 0 has a stockAssessment of out-of-stock or low-stock depending on how far away the Reorder Date is.

How metrics roll up to the variant level​

All three time-based metrics are calculated independently for each inventory level (each variant at each location). They are then aggregated to the variant level as follows:

  • Reorder Date — earliest reorder date across all locations
  • Coverage Date — earliest coverage date across all locations
  • Stock Assessment — worst-severity status across all locations

This means a variant shows low-stock if even one of its locations is low, and its Reorder Date reflects the location that needs restocking soonest.

When metrics update​

These metrics are not updated in real time as sales occur. They recalculate:

  • Daily — via the scheduled nightly inventory run
  • On demand — when you trigger Refresh Metrics from the inventory table

Shopify syncs update on-hand quantities but do not by themselves recalculate the simulation metrics. If you need an up-to-date Reorder Date or Stockout Date immediately after a sync, use Refresh Metrics.

What to do when you see a Stockout Date​

The closer the Stockout Date is to today, the more urgent the action:

Stockout DateSituationRecommended action
In the past or todayAlready out of stockPlace a PO immediately; check Stock Gap Days
Within lead timeWill stockout before any new order can arrivePlace a PO immediately; a stock gap is unavoidable unless you can expedite
Within defaultRunningLowDays (default 40 days)Approaching reorder pointPlan and place a PO soon
Beyond 40 daysHealthyNo immediate action needed
NullNo stockout projected within 365 daysNo action needed